Airlines Bank on ‘Catastrophe Tourism’ to Drive Ukraine Travel Demand After War Ends

European budget carriers prepare rapid deployment as peace deal nears, betting visitors will flock to post-war landscape alongside returning refugees and reconstruction workers.

Europe’s largest low-cost airlines are positioning for a swift return to Ukraine as an anticipated peace agreement approaches, with executives predicting a surge in “catastrophe tourism” will help drive travel demand once the country’s airspace reopens for commercial operations.

Wizz Air and Ryanair have developed detailed deployment plans that could see flights resume within weeks of any peace deal with Russia, while easyJet has expressed interest in serving Ukraine for the first time despite having no pre-war presence in the market.

Wizz Air plans to base up to 15 aircraft in Ukraine within two years of a peace agreement, potentially expanding to 50 aircraft within seven years, the carrier confirmed. The Budapest-based airline was Ukraine’s largest foreign carrier before the conflict forced the indefinite closure of Ukrainian airspace in early 2022.

Ryanair has visited Ukrainian airports extensively to prepare for operations and aims to serve up to 4 million annual passengers, nearly triple the 1.5 million passengers it carried in Ukraine during 2021. The Irish carrier said it could launch flights with just two weeks’ notice following a peace agreement.

“We have planned for this. As soon as the airspace opens, we are going to be very quick to re-establish ourselves,” Wizz Air chief executive József Váradi told the Financial Times. “Re-opening would be a significant opportunity for us.”

Váradi predicted that visitors to Ukraine’s post-conflict landscape would comprise a major source of travel demand, drawing parallels to the surge in tourism to Berlin following the fall of the Berlin Wall. The phenomenon, sometimes termed “catastrophe tourism,” involves travelers visiting ongoing or recent conflict zones.

The carriers expect multiple demand drivers beyond tourism. An estimated 7 million Ukrainian nationals dispersed worldwide during the conflict are expected to return home by air once peace is established. The United Nations estimates Ukraine’s reconstruction will cost $524 billion over the next decade, accounting only for damage between Feb. 24, 2022, and Dec. 31, 2024, creating substantial business travel demand.

Ukraine attracted approximately 15 million foreign visitors in 2019, dropping to 10.8 million in 2021 primarily due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, according to Visit Ukraine.

EasyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis told The Independent that Ukraine will become “Europe’s largest building project” and possesses operational infrastructure capable of quickly restarting commercial service. The British carrier said it would likely begin Ukraine operations from its London Gatwick base before potentially expanding to Belfast and Liverpool.

Kyiv Boryspil International Airport, Ukraine’s largest facility, maintains a one-month operational readiness status but indicated it could prepare for commercial operations in less than a few weeks. Ukraine International Airlines, the country’s national carrier, has remained dormant with no clear plans announced for its future.

The aviation industry expects that once a peace agreement is signed, demand for air service to Ukraine will increase substantially due to returning citizens, economic investment related to reconstruction efforts, and tourism interest in the post-war country.