US Air Force Sets 2038 Production Target for C-17 Globemaster Replacement as Next-Generation Airlifter Program Takes Shape

Air Mobility Command’s Airlift Recapitalization Strategy targets a single next-gen aircraft to replace both the C-17 Globemaster and the C-5M Super Galaxy — but the Air Force’s own interim mobility chief says it’s “woefully behind.”

The U.S. Air Force has set fiscal year 2038 as its earliest production target for a C-17 Globemaster III replacement, with initial operational capability planned for fiscal year 2041, Air Mobility Command said.

The formal Airlift Recapitalization Strategy, signed Nov. 18, 2025, by Brig. Gen. David A. Fazenbaker, director of strategy, plans, requirements and programs at Air Mobility Command, calls for a single new platform — designated the Next-Generation Airlifter (NGAL) — to eventually replace all 222 C-17 Globemaster IIIs and all 52 C-5M Super Galaxies currently in the inventory. The total procurement goal is 274 aircraft.

“With an accelerated NGAL Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) in FY27 and an uninterrupted acquisition process with consistent funding, the first NGAL aircraft could be produced as early as FY38,” Fazenbaker wrote in the strategy document, as reported by Air & Space Forces Magazine. “It is estimated the NGAL program will reach Initial Operational Capability (IOC) in FY41.”

One Aircraft for Two Fleets

The strategy’s most significant departure from previous modernization planning is its consolidation approach: rather than developing separate successors for the C-17 and the C-5M Super Galaxy, Air Mobility Command will pursue a single aircraft type capable of performing the mission sets of both platforms.

Gen. John Lamontagne, then-commander of Air Mobility Command, publicly confirmed the approach at the Air & Space Forces Association’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference in September 2025. “When I say two-for-one, we’re probably going to procure one aircraft,” Lamontagne told reporters. “We won’t get a C-5 replacement and a C-17 replacement. There’ll be one airplane that does strategic airlift.”

On capability requirements, Lamontagne was direct: “As far as what we want in the next platform: we want agility, we want speed, we want to be able to operate in a higher threat environment.”

Under the strategy, the NGAL would replace the C-5M fleet first, on a one-for-one basis. Once all 52 C-5Ms are retired — now projected around fiscal year 2050 — the program would transition to replacing C-17s one for one through approximately fiscal year 2075. A formal Analysis of Alternatives is scheduled for fiscal year 2027, the program’s first major acquisition milestone. AMC plans to acquire roughly 7.4 NGAL aircraft per year, a tempo comparable to the current annual procurement rate of the B-21 Raider stealth bomber.

Aging Fleets, Declining Readiness

The strategy reflects worsening readiness figures across both legacy fleets. The C-17’s mission-capable rate stands at approximately 75 percent, but the aircraft has been involved in 21 Class-A mishaps — the military’s costliest and most serious incident category — over the past four years, more than any of the military’s most-used aircraft. C-17 production ceased in 2015, and the fleet’s average age now exceeds two decades.

The C-5M Super Galaxy’s readiness posture is more acute. Following a Reliability Enhancement and Re-engining Program completed between 2006 and 2018 at a cost of approximately $10 billion, the C-5M’s mission-capable rate stands at approximately 48 percent — well short of the Air Force’s “Drive to 55” target. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach told the House Appropriations Committee in April that the rate had fallen to 37 percent, with some airframes sitting in depot for as long as 900 days.

The Air Force’s fiscal year 2027 budget documents extended the C-5M’s planned retirement from fiscal year 2045 to fiscal year 2050 — a five-year slip driven by NGAL acquisition risks and continued demand for the aircraft’s outsized cargo capacity, including recent Middle East operations.

Fazenbaker’s memo acknowledged the sustainment risk directly: “To mitigate risks associated with acquisition delays, funding uncertainties, or technological challenges, the existing C-5M and C-17A fleets’ operational viability must be maintained until a fully capable replacement is fielded, which may require extending the service life and associated Military Type Certificate (MTC) of each platform.”

Strategic and Legislative Drivers

The strategy must also satisfy a statutory floor. The fiscal year 2013 National Defense Authorization Act requires the Air Force to maintain at least 223 C-17 aircraft and 52 C-5 aircraft. The NGAL program’s one-for-one replacement approach is designed to prevent the service from falling below those legislatively mandated minimums during the multi-decade transition.

The consolidation also reflects Indo-Pacific strategic demands. Advanced air defense systems and long-range missiles deployed by peer competitors have placed conventional, large, and relatively slow airlifters at growing risk in contested airspace. Air Mobility Command has flagged that the NGAL will need to support Agile Combat Employment concepts — dispersed, low-signature operations — across great distances in the Pacific.

Future airlifters are being conceptualized as integrated nodes in Joint All-Domain Command and Control architectures, capable of sharing real-time data with other platforms across air, land, sea, cyber, and space domains. Defensive systems under consideration include integrated electronic warfare suites, directed energy self-defense weapons, and advanced countermeasures packages.

Critics Warn of Delays

The strategy has drawn pointed criticism. Lt. Gen. Reba Sonkiss, the interim head of Air Mobility Command, told reporters in February 2026 that the service is “woefully behind” on modernizing its mobility aircraft.

Retired Gen. Mike Minihan, who led Air Mobility Command until 2024, questioned whether the new strategy would produce results previous modernization efforts had not. “Why would this approach to this old problem deliver a different result than what has already happened?” Minihan said, as reported by Defense One.

Minihan voiced particular concern about the widening capability gap between U.S. strike forces and the airlift fleet supporting them. “I’m extremely worried about what I call the equilibrium,” he said. “The equilibrium between the force that supports and the force that needs supporting, or the strike forces. So you’re going to have fifth- and sixth-generation bombers and fighters, and you’re still on generation-two airlifters and tankers.”

Jessica Ruttenber, a former Air Force pilot and program manager who oversaw the C-5 and C-17 portfolios, said the service life extension was not surprising given the NGAL timeline, but the costs would remain significant. “It’s a grandfather jet, so it doesn’t surprise me one bit,” she said of the C-5 extension. “The thing that concerns me for the C-5 and the C-17…is the maintenance cost and the upkeep.”

Technology Pathways and Parallel Programs

An industry solicitation posted to SAM.gov following the November 2025 strategy drew responses by Jan. 30, 2026, with the estimated contract value ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion.

One closely watched technology pathway for NGAL is the blended wing body configuration. In August 2023, the Department of the Air Force selected startup JetZero, partnered with Northrop Grumman, to design, build, and demonstrate a full-scale blended wing body prototype, managed through the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit with approximately $235 million in investment over four years. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said at the time: “The prototype demonstration project is intended to accelerate the next generation of what may be the large aircraft fleet that the Air Force needs in the future.”

A subscale demonstrator nicknamed “Pathfinder,” with a 23-foot wingspan, has validated baseline aerodynamic behaviors at Crow’s Landing, California. The first flight of the full-scale demonstrator remains on track for 2027. A blended wing body design could reduce fuel burn by approximately 30 percent compared to existing cargo aircraft. The Air Force has carefully avoided confirming that the JetZero aircraft will definitively serve as the NGAL design basis.

Lamontagne also referenced two parallel mobility development efforts: “NGAL-Little,” a smaller airlift variant, and the Next-Generation Intra-Theater Airlift, or NGIA — a potentially autonomous, electric-powered aircraft designed for short takeoffs and landings at dispersed forward bases. The Air Force has also signaled it may consider whether NGAL variants could perform the Next-Generation Aerial Refueling System mission from a common airframe.

Historical Context

The NGAL program represents the latest chapter in a decades-long progression of U.S. strategic airlift development. The Lockheed C-141 Starlifter, introduced in the 1960s as the Air Force’s first jet-powered strategic airlifter, flew for approximately 42 years before its last operational flight in 2006. The Lockheed C-5 Galaxy entered service in 1970; the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III followed in 1993, combining strategic reach with the ability to operate from semi-prepared airstrips as short as approximately 3,500 feet.

Under the NGAL timeline, some of the oldest C-17 airframes still flying today will have been in service for approximately 80 years when the last Globemaster IIIs are retired around fiscal year 2075.