From Prices to Shortages: How the Iran Crisis Is Pushing Aviation to the Brink

With jet fuel prices nearly double their pre-crisis levels, airline executives warn that actual supply shortages — not just soaring costs — could ground flights across multiple continents within weeks.

The ongoing 2026 Iran Crisis has pushed global airlines toward a potential fuel supply emergency, with top executives warning that reserves in some regions could run dry within weeks as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to cut off shipments from some of the world’s largest oil refineries.

easyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis offered one of the starkest assessments of the situation, saying his airline’s fuel supply confidence fades sharply beyond the three-week mark.

“I’m confident for a week or two that we’re all good. I’m probably confident that we’re good for three weeks. Am I confident over four weeks? Nobody’s telling me don’t worry about it halfway into May,” Jarvis said.

Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith said the airline group is actively “drawing up scenarios” to manage potential fuel shortages, identifying airports in Southeast Asia as facing the highest near-term risk.

Southeast Asia’s acute exposure stems from its heavy reliance on fuel transported through the Gulf region. Vietnam has already issued fuel shortage warnings. Europe, by contrast, holds enough supply to cover airlines for at least the next month — though industry leaders caution that buffer could erode rapidly. Scandinavian Airlines has already canceled around 1,000 flights in April in response to the widening crisis.

U.S. Airlines Among the Most Exposed

U.S. carriers face serious financial headwinds, compounded by the fact that most have largely moved away from fuel hedging in recent years, leaving them more vulnerable to price shocks than some foreign counterparts.

United Airlines announced it would cut 5% of its flights in the second and third quarters of this year. CEO Scott Kirby warned the airline could face up to $11 billion more in fuel costs each year if conditions do not improve. Rival Delta Air Lines has already logged a $400 million charge attributable to rising fuel prices, and U.S. airlines collectively face billions of dollars in added fuel costs this year. Even carriers that have invested in fuel hedging will face rising operational costs and remain exposed to shortages at foreign airports.

The Threat of Stranded Aircraft

Beyond the question of cost, airlines face a direct operational hazard: aircraft becoming stranded at foreign airports where fuel cannot be guaranteed for the return journey. A grounded jet earns no revenue, and passengers on affected flights would require reimbursement along with duty-of-care costs — including accommodation and meals — which can run into significant sums across a large network.

To counter that risk, some airlines have revived the practice of fuel tankering — loading aircraft with extra fuel before departure to reduce the amount needed when refueling abroad. But the strategy carries an inherent penalty. A heavier aircraft burns more fuel per mile, cutting into margins that are already extremely thin across the industry.

For many carriers, that math has pointed toward a harder choice. Kirby said there is “no point in burning cash” on loss-making flights, and canceling a route outright is often the more financially sound option over continuing to operate it at a loss.