North America accounts for 925 of the 2,670 freighters Airbus projects through 2045, more than any other region, even as Asia-Pacific keeps its lead in international cargo traffic.
Airbus’ newest air cargo forecast ranks North America first in global freighter demand, with 925 of the 2,670 freighters the planemaker projects operators will need through 2045.
Airbus released the 20-year outlook Wednesday in connection with the Cargo Facts Symposium. Asia-Pacific placed second at 850 aircraft. Even so, Airbus said Asia-Pacific will “continue to be the leading region” for international air cargo traffic, according to its Oct. 21 forecast release.
The ranking puts the region that includes the United States at the head of the manufacturer’s long-range freighter outlook. The figures are a manufacturer’s planning estimate, not a tally of orders.
Two rankings, two different measures
Airbus’ regional demand figure counts freighter aircraft, including the jets needed to replace retiring ones. Its international traffic comparison tracks origin-and-destination cargo flows. A region can lead one measure without leading the other.
Neither the release nor Airbus’ accompanying forecast presentation breaks out a U.S.-only figure. Neither splits North America’s 925 aircraft between replacement and growth. They also do not assign the demand to any particular carrier or lessor.
Airbus’ regional requirements through 2045, rounded to the nearest five aircraft:
- North America: 925
- Asia-Pacific: 850
- Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): 515
- Latin America: 165
- Middle East: 125
- Africa: 90
By those figures, North America accounts for about 34.6% of projected global demand. Asia-Pacific accounts for about 31.8%.
Replacement drives most global demand
Worldwide, Airbus said 1,580 of the freighters, or about 59%, are needed to replace older aircraft. The remaining 1,090, about 41%, are tied to growth.
Airbus’ presentation links that replacement pressure to an aging global freighter fleet, following low retirements and substantial conversions. That explanation applies to the world fleet. Airbus has not published a matching breakdown for North America.
Conversions dominate the outlook. Airbus projects demand for 1,700 passenger aircraft converted to carry freight and 970 factory-built freighters.
By size category, the forecast calls for 1,140 single-aisle freighters, 860 mid-size wide-bodies and 670 large wide-bodies. The two breakdowns describe the same 2,670-aircraft total from different angles.
Airbus said the worldwide dedicated freighter fleet will grow 46% to 3,460 aircraft by 2045.
The manufacturer pointed to the sector’s recent performance under pressure. Airbus said in the release: “Despite high fuel prices, ongoing geopolitical disruptions, and supply chain constraints, air freight has demonstrated remarkable resilience.”
Airbus forecasts global air cargo traffic will grow 3.2% a year over the outlook period, with trade growing 2.9% a year. It identifies Asia-Pacific–North America as the largest international cargo route grouping, with projected annual growth of 3.8%.
North America already led a year ago
The new ranking is not a change in leadership. Airbus’ October 2025 outlook also put North America ahead, at 920 aircraft to Asia-Pacific’s 850.
In the latest edition, North America’s figure rose by five aircraft and Asia-Pacific’s held steady. The forecast window also rolled forward one year, from 2044 to 2045.
The global total climbed by 65 aircraft from 2,605, an increase of about 2.5%. Factory-built freighters rose by 35 from 935, about 3.7%. Conversions edged up from 1,670 to 1,700.
Last year’s outlook projected a final fleet of 3,420 freighters by 2044.
These comparisons involve successive forecasts covering different 20-year windows. They do not reflect actual deliveries or orders.
Rival and independent outlooks
Boeing published its own estimates in July. Its 2026 commercial market outlook projects demand for more than 2,900 production and converted freighters through 2045. It also projects air cargo traffic growth of about 3.7% a year.
Boeing’s figures were issued separately and rest on its own methodology. They are not a response to the Airbus forecast.
Cirium, in an Oct. 13 release on its own fleet forecast, cited supply-chain bottlenecks, engine availability and extended certification timelines as constraints on adding aircraft capacity. Those observations cover the wider commercial fleet, not a specific North American freighter shortfall.
No independent analyst assessment of Airbus’ North American ranking could be found as of Thursday. No public statement on the forecast from FedEx or UPS could be found either.
A350F flight testing underway
The forecast arrives as Airbus tests its own new-production wide-body freighter. The A350F made its first flight Sept. 29, according to Airbus’ first-flight announcement.
Airbus said the first test aircraft, manufacturer serial number 700, flew for 4 hours and 10 minutes and reached 25,000 feet. The company described a flight-test campaign lasting more than nine months. A first flight does not amount to certification or entry into commercial service.
The cargo outlook follows Airbus’ passenger traffic forecast, released July 8.
Key Takeaways
- Airbus projects North America will need 925 freighters through 2045, ahead of Asia-Pacific’s 850 and every other region.
- Worldwide requirements total 2,670 aircraft: 1,700 passenger-to-freighter conversions and 970 factory-built freighters.
- Replacement accounts for about 59% of global demand, but Airbus published no U.S.-only figure or North American replacement split.
- Airbus says Asia-Pacific remains the leading region for international air cargo traffic.
- North America also led Airbus’ 2025 outlook, at 920 aircraft.